The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 9; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #1Ohio State | 4–0 | 7–0 | 8.4–0.6 | 78% | 47% | >99% |
 #2Indiana | 4–0 | 7–0 | 8.2–0.8 | 77% | 32% | 96% |
 #6Oregon | 3–1 | 6–1 | 7.3–1.7 | 29% | 16% | 87% |
 #25Michigan | 3–1 | 5–2 | 6.7–2.3 | 9% | 2% | 6% |
 USC | 3–1 | 5–2 | 6.5–2.5 | 4% | 2% | 7% |
 Iowa | 3–1 | 5–2 | 6.0–3.0 | 3% | <1% | 5% |
 Minnesota | 3–1 | 5–2 | 5.4–3.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 3–1 | 5–2 | 4.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 UCLA | 3–1 | 3–4 | 3.8–5.2 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Washington | 2–2 | 5–2 | 5.2–3.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #23Illinois | 2–2 | 5–2 | 4.9–4.1 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Nebraska | 2–2 | 5–2 | 4.1–4.9 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 Maryland | 1–3 | 4–3 | 3.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Michigan State | 0–4 | 3–4 | 0.5–8.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Penn State | 0–4 | 3–4 | 3.6–5.4 | 0% | 0% | 10% |
 Purdue | 0–4 | 2–5 | 0.5–8.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rutgers | 0–4 | 3–4 | 1.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Wisconsin | 0–4 | 2–5 | 1.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.