The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
9 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 10; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Indiana | 5–0 | 8–0 | 8.4–0.6 | 84% | 44% | 97% |
 #1Ohio State | 4–0 | 7–0 | 8.4–0.6 | 77% | 41% | >99% |
 #6Oregon | 4–1 | 7–1 | 7.2–1.8 | 21% | 10% | 83% |
 Iowa | 4–1 | 6–2 | 6.5–2.5 | 6% | 2% | 6% |
 #21Michigan | 4–1 | 6–2 | 6.8–2.2 | 9% | 2% | 6% |
 #23USC | 3–1 | 5–2 | 6.5–2.5 | 3% | 1% | 7% |
 Washington | 3–2 | 6–2 | 5.6–3.4 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Nebraska | 3–2 | 6–2 | 4.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Minnesota | 3–2 | 5–3 | 5.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Northwestern | 3–2 | 5–3 | 4.1–4.9 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 UCLA | 3–2 | 3–5 | 3.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Illinois | 2–3 | 5–3 | 4.5–4.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Maryland | 1–3 | 4–3 | 3.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Rutgers | 1–4 | 4–4 | 1.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Michigan State | 0–5 | 3–5 | 0.5–8.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Penn State | 0–4 | 3–4 | 3.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
 Purdue | 0–5 | 2–6 | 0.1–8.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Wisconsin | 0–5 | 2–6 | 1.1–7.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.