The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
11 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 10; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BYU | 5–0 | 8–0 | 7.1–1.9 | 57% | 23% | 17% |
 #17Cincinnati | 5–0 | 7–1 | 6.8–2.2 | 32% | 10% | 13% |
 #13Texas Tech | 4–1 | 7–1 | 7.1–1.9 | 63% | 42% | 48% |
 #22Houston | 4–1 | 7–1 | 5.8–3.2 | 4% | <1% | 2% |
 #24Utah | 3–2 | 6–2 | 6.2–2.8 | 23% | 15% | 16% |
 TCU | 3–2 | 6–2 | 5.4–3.6 | 10% | 4% | 5% |
 Kansas State | 3–2 | 4–4 | 5.5–3.5 | 5% | 3% | 4% |
 Arizona State | 3–2 | 5–3 | 5.6–3.4 | 5% | 1% | <1% |
 Iowa State | 2–3 | 5–3 | 4.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Baylor | 2–3 | 4–4 | 3.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kansas | 2–3 | 4–4 | 4.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 UCF | 1–3 | 4–3 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 1–3 | 4–3 | 2.8–6.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado | 1–4 | 3–5 | 2.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–5 | 1–7 | 0.2–8.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 West Virginia | 0–5 | 2–6 | 0.7–8.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.