#6Oregon Ducks
7–1 · 4–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
21%
Big Ten title game
10%
Win the Big Ten
83%
Make the playoff
33%
First-round bye
avg seed 5.5
How the week went: playoff odds 83% → 68% · title-game odds 21% → 9%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Oregon's pathBig swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · FOX
Penn State at #1 Ohio State
Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Penn State — their wins make your résumé stronger.
Final · Penn State 14–38 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Penn State+29.3 pp title-game odds
…
… · CBS
#2 Indiana at Maryland
Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Indiana losing softens the sting of your loss to them.
Final · Indiana 55–10 MarylandWent the other way ✗
Root for Maryland+20.4 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
South Carolina at #7 Ole Miss
South Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · South Carolina 14–30 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for South Carolina+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#5 Georgia at Florida
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Florida winning protects it.
Final · Georgia 24–20 FloridaWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+3.5 pp first-round-bye odds
48 more games that don't move your needle
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2
Miami at SMU · ESPN
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA · ESPN
Memphis at Rice · ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Duke at Clemson · ACC Network
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Navy at North Texas · ESPN2
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State · FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Virginia at California · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.