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#8Oregon Ducks

5–1 · 2–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 8 · 2025
23%
Big Ten title game
11%
Win the Big Ten
78%
Make the playoff
30%
First-round bye
avg seed 5.7
How the week went: playoff odds 78% → 87% · title-game odds 23% → 29%.
Playoff odds by week
12345678

If Oregon wins out: 28% to win the Big Ten, 99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path
Your game
…
… · BTN
#8 Oregon at Rutgers

Your game. Beat Rutgers and your playoff odds are 81%; lose and they drop to 57%.

Final · Oregon 56–10 RutgersWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · CBS
#1 Ohio State at Wisconsin

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings; Wisconsin visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.

Final · Ohio State 34–0 WisconsinWent the other way ✗
Root for Wisconsin+22.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · Peacock
Michigan State at #3 Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Indiana losing softens the sting of your loss to them.

Final · Michigan State 13–38 IndianaWent the other way ✗
Root for Michigan State+17.0 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · Peacock
Penn State at Iowa

You already beat Penn State; them losing again keeps them behind you; Iowa visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Final · Penn State 24–25 IowaWish granted ✓
Root for Iowa+2.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · NBC
#20 USC at #13 Notre Dame

USC visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · USC 24–34 Notre DameWent the other way ✗
Root for USC+2.0 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
Louisville at #2 Miami

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Louisville winning protects it.

Final · Louisville 24–21 MiamiWish granted ✓
Root for Louisville+2.8 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ESPN
#4 Texas A&M at Arkansas

Arkansas winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Texas A&M 45–42 ArkansasWent the other way ✗
Root for Arkansas+1.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · FOX
#25 Nebraska at Minnesota

Minnesota visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Final · Nebraska 6–24 MinnesotaWish granted ✓
Root for Minnesota+1.4 pp playoff odds
51 more games that don't move your needle
Oklahoma at South Carolina · SEC Network
Texas Tech at Arizona State · FOX
Washington at Michigan · FOX
Tennessee at Alabama · ABC
Arkansas State at South Alabama · ESPN2
New Mexico State at Liberty · CBSSN
Florida International at Western Kentucky · ESPNU
Delaware at Jacksonville State · ESPN2
UTEP at Sam Houston · CBSSN
Tulsa at East Carolina · ESPN
San José State at Utah State · CBSSN
North Carolina at California · ESPN
LSU at Vanderbilt · ABC
Georgia Tech at Duke · ESPN
UConn at Boston College · ACC Network
Arizona at Houston · FS1
Baylor at TCU · ESPN2
Army at Tulane · ESPNU
Central Michigan at Bowling Green · CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
West Virginia at UCF · TNT
Kent State at Toledo · ESPN+
Buffalo at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Purdue at Northwestern · BTN
Troy at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Ole Miss at Georgia · ABC
SMU at Clemson · ACC Network
Wyoming at Air Force · CBSSN
UNLV at Boise State · FS1
Coastal Carolina at App State · ESPN+
Old Dominion at James Madison · ESPNU
Texas State at Marshall · ESPN+
Temple at Charlotte · ESPN+
UTSA at North Texas · ESPN+
Akron at Ball State · ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Ohio · ESPN+
Memphis at UAB · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Florida · SEC Network
Southern Miss at Louisiana · ESPN+
Washington State at Virginia · The CW Network
Texas at Kentucky · ESPN
Maryland at UCLA · FS1
Hawai'i at Colorado State
Georgia State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Pittsburgh at Syracuse · ACC Network
Florida Atlantic at South Florida · ESPNU
Missouri at Auburn · SEC Network
Utah at BYU · FOX
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Nevada at New Mexico · FS1
Florida State at Stanford · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.