The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
11 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 9; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 3–0 | 4–3 | 7.0–1.0 | 88% | 59% | 1% |
 Kennesaw State | 2–0 | 4–2 | 4.8–3.2 | 19% | 6% | <1% |
 Western Kentucky | 3–1 | 5–2 | 5.1–2.9 | 17% | 6% | <1% |
 Liberty | 2–1 | 3–4 | 5.0–3.0 | 30% | 12% | <1% |
 Louisiana Tech | 2–1 | 4–2 | 4.8–3.2 | 16% | 6% | <1% |
 Missouri State | 1–1 | 3–3 | 4.1–3.9 | 8% | 3% | <1% |
 Florida International | 1–1 | 3–3 | 3.8–4.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% |
 Delaware | 1–2 | 3–3 | 4.8–3.2 | 15% | 7% | <1% |
 New Mexico State | 1–2 | 3–3 | 3.3–4.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 1–2 | 2–5 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–2 | 1–5 | 1.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 0–4 | 0–7 | 0.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.