The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
7 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 12; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 5–0 | 6–3 | 7.2–0.8 | 86% | 56% | <1% |
 Kennesaw State | 5–0 | 7–2 | 6.1–1.9 | 60% | 22% | <1% |
 Western Kentucky | 5–1 | 7–2 | 6.1–1.9 | 27% | 11% | <1% |
 Missouri State | 4–1 | 6–3 | 5.6–2.4 | 21% | 8% | <1% |
 Liberty | 3–2 | 4–5 | 4.8–3.2 | 7% | 4% | <1% |
 Delaware | 3–3 | 5–4 | 4.6–3.4 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Louisiana Tech | 3–3 | 5–4 | 4.1–3.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Florida International | 2–3 | 4–5 | 3.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 1–4 | 2–7 | 2.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 New Mexico State | 1–5 | 3–6 | 2.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–5 | 1–8 | 1.1–6.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 0–5 | 1–8 | 0.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.