The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
6 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 12; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 6–0 | 8–1 | 7.9–0.1 | 96% | 86% | 35% |
 Southern Miss | 5–0 | 7–2 | 6.3–1.7 | 57% | 6% | <1% |
 Coastal Carolina | 5–1 | 6–3 | 5.5–2.5 | 4% | 2% | <1% |
 Troy | 4–1 | 6–3 | 5.8–2.2 | 41% | 6% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 4–2 | 5–5 | 4.9–3.1 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Old Dominion | 3–2 | 6–3 | 5.2–2.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Louisiana | 3–3 | 4–6 | 4.4–3.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia Southern | 2–3 | 4–5 | 3.2–4.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Marshall | 2–3 | 4–5 | 4.3–3.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 App State | 1–4 | 4–5 | 2.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 South Alabama | 1–4 | 2–7 | 2.7–5.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 1–4 | 3–6 | 1.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–5 | 1–8 | 0.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Texas State | 0–5 | 3–6 | 2.2–5.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.