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James Madison Dukes

8–1 · 6–0 SUN BELT
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
96%
Sun Belt title game
86%
Win the Sun Belt
35%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.6
How the week went: playoff odds 35% → 39% · title-game odds 96% → 100%.
Playoff odds by week
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If James Madison wins out: 90% to win the Sun Belt, 42% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves James Madison's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN+
App State at James Madison

Your game. Beat App State and your playoff odds are 36%; lose and they drop to 9%.

Final · App State 10–58 James MadisonWish granted ✓
Just win
Clinch watchan outcome here could settle something for good
…
… · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern winning would all but clinch your spot in the Sun Belt title game; you beat Georgia Southern — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Coastal Carolina in week 14.

Final · Coastal Carolina 40–45 Georgia SouthernWish granted ✓
Root for Georgia Southern+9.9 pp title-game odds
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
#24 South Florida at Navy

Navy winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · South Florida 38–41 NavyWish granted ✓
Root for Navy+9.6 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB

UAB winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · North Texas 53–24 UABWent the other way ✗
Root for UAB+3.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
#19 Virginia at Duke

Duke winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWent the other way ✗
Root for Duke+3.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Tulane

Tulane winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Florida Atlantic 24–35 TulaneWish granted ✓
Root for Tulane+2.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
Ohio at Western Michigan

Western Michigan winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ohio 13–17 Western MichiganWish granted ✓
Root for Western Michigan+2.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
Boise State at San Diego State

San Diego State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Boise State 7–17 San Diego StateWish granted ✓
Root for San Diego State+2.2 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss

You already beat Texas State; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Texas State 41–14 Southern MissWent the other way ✗
Root for Southern Miss+1.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ACC Network
#16 Georgia Tech at Boston College

Boston College winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Georgia Tech 36–34 Boston CollegeWent the other way ✗
Root for Boston College+1.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
Utah State at UNLV

Utah State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Utah State 26–29 UNLVWent the other way ✗
Root for Utah State+1.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
Clemson at #20 Louisville

Louisville losing softens the sting of your loss to them.

Final · Clemson 20–19 LouisvilleWish granted ✓
Root for Clemson+1.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · The CW Network
Louisiana Tech at Washington State

Washington State visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · Louisiana Tech 3–28 Washington StateWish granted ✓
Root for Washington State+1.4 pp playoff odds
45 more games that don't move your needle
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
NC State at Miami · ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.