The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2025
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.0–2.0 | 45% | 28% | 12% |
 James Madison | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 42% | 23% | 9% |
 South Alabama | 0–0 | 1–1 | 6.0–2.0 | 31% | 16% | 4% |
 Marshall | 0–0 | 0–2 | 4.7–3.3 | 19% | 8% | 2% |
 App State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.2–2.8 | 20% | 8% | <1% |
 Troy | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.1–2.9 | 15% | 6% | <1% |
 Old Dominion | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.9–3.1 | 15% | 6% | <1% |
 Louisiana | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.4–3.6 | 8% | 4% | <1% |
 Georgia Southern | 0–0 | 0–2 | 3.7–4.3 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Coastal Carolina | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Georgia State | 0–0 | 0–2 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 UL Monroe | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Southern Miss | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.4–6.6 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.