The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 16 · 2025
The title game is set: James Madison vs Troy.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 16; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #24James MadisonClinched | 8–0 | 12–1 | 8.0–0.0 | 100% | 100% | 87% |
 Old Dominion | 6–2 | 9–3 | 6.0–2.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 TroyClinched | 6–2 | 8–5 | 6.0–2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
 Arkansas State | 5–3 | 6–6 | 5.0–3.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Coastal Carolina | 5–3 | 6–6 | 5.0–3.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Louisiana | 5–3 | 6–6 | 5.0–3.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Southern Miss | 5–3 | 7–5 | 5.0–3.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia Southern | 4–4 | 6–6 | 4.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Marshall | 3–5 | 5–7 | 3.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 South Alabama | 3–5 | 4–8 | 3.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Texas State | 3–5 | 6–6 | 3.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 App State | 2–6 | 5–7 | 2.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 1–7 | 3–9 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–8 | 1–11 | 0.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 16, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 16). How the model works.