The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UNLV | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.2–1.8 | 68% | 43% | 14% |
 Boise State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.9–2.1 | 55% | 30% | 9% |
 Fresno State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.4–2.6 | 32% | 14% | 2% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 0–2 | 4.8–3.2 | 15% | 5% | <1% |
 Air Force | 0–0 | 1–0 | 4.2–3.8 | 10% | 4% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.9–4.1 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
 Utah State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.7–4.3 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.3–4.7 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
 San Diego State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.0–5.0 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.1–4.9 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Nevada | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.