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SMU Mustangs

5–2 · 3–0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
45%
ACC title game
27%
Win the ACC
22%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 9.9
How the week went: playoff odds 22% → 9% · title-game odds 45% → 14%.
Playoff odds by week
123456789

If SMU wins out: 66% to win the ACC, 63% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves SMU's path
Your game
…
… · The CW Network
SMU at Wake Forest

Your game. Beat Wake Forest and your playoff odds are 27%; lose and they drop to 9%.

Final · SMU 12–13 Wake ForestWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
Syracuse at #7 Georgia Tech

ACC race: Georgia Tech losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Syracuse — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Syracuse 16–41 Georgia TechWent the other way ✗
Root for Syracuse+8.4 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ACC Network
Boston College at #19 Louisville

ACC race: Louisville losing helps your spot in the standings; Boston College visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Final · Boston College 24–38 LouisvilleWent the other way ✗
Root for Boston College+4.9 pp title-game odds
…
… · ACC Network
#16 Virginia at North Carolina

ACC race: Virginia losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Virginia 17–16 North CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Root for North Carolina+4.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
Stanford at #9 Miami

ACC race: Miami losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Stanford — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Miami in week 10.

Final · Stanford 7–42 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Root for Stanford+3.5 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
California at Virginia Tech

ACC race: Virginia Tech losing helps your spot in the standings; California visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · California 34–42 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗
Root for California+2.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Ball State at Northern Illinois

Ball State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ball State 7–21 Northern IllinoisWent the other way ✗
Root for Ball State+1.6 pp playoff odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
Kennesaw State at Florida International · ESPNU
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Middle Tennessee at Delaware · ESPN2
Missouri State at New Mexico State · CBSSN
South Alabama at Georgia State · ESPN2
North Texas at Charlotte · ESPN2
Boise State at Nevada · CBSSN
Ole Miss at Oklahoma · ABC
Northwestern at Nebraska · FS1
Rutgers at Purdue · BTN
UCLA at Indiana · FOX
Kansas State at Kansas · TNT
App State at Old Dominion · ESPNU
South Florida at Memphis · ESPN2
Bowling Green at Kent State · ESPN+
Ohio at Eastern Michigan · CBSSN
Auburn at Arkansas · SEC Network
Akron at Buffalo · ESPN+
UConn at Rice · ESPN+
Utah State at New Mexico
Alabama at South Carolina · ABC
Missouri at Vanderbilt · ESPN
Illinois at Washington · BTN
Minnesota at Iowa · CBS
Toledo at Washington State · The CW Network
NC State at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
BYU at Iowa State · FOX
San Diego State at Fresno State · FS1
UL Monroe at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Navy · CBSSN
Temple at Tulsa · ESPN+
Massachusetts at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Baylor at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech · ESPNU
Texas at Mississippi State · SEC Network
TCU at West Virginia · ESPN+
Wisconsin at Oregon · FS1
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State · ESPN+
Louisiana at Troy · ESPN+
Texas A&M at LSU · ABC
Michigan at Michigan State · NBC
Colorado State at Wyoming · CBSSN
Tennessee at Kentucky · SEC Network
Houston at Arizona State · ESPN2
Colorado at Utah · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.