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#4Alabama Crimson Tide

7–1 · 5–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
90%
SEC title game
45%
Win the SEC
90%
Make the playoff
53%
First-round bye
avg seed 4.4
How the week went: playoff odds 90% → 89%.
Playoff odds by week
12345678910

If Alabama wins out: 51% to win the SEC, 99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Alabama's path
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#5 Georgia at Florida

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Florida winning protects it; you already beat Georgia; them losing again keeps them behind you; you still play Georgia in week 15.

Final · Georgia 24–20 FloridaWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+5.4 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · CBS
#2 Indiana at Maryland

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Maryland winning protects it.

Final · Indiana 55–10 MarylandWent the other way ✗
Root for Maryland+4.4 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ESPN
South Carolina at #7 Ole Miss

You beat South Carolina — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · South Carolina 14–30 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for South Carolina+2.0 pp playoff odds
…
… · SEC Network
Kentucky at Auburn

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Auburn winning protects it; Auburn visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Kentucky 10–3 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Root for Auburn+2.6 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ABC
#18 Oklahoma at #14 Tennessee

You already beat Tennessee; them losing again keeps them behind you; Oklahoma visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Final · Oklahoma 33–27 TennesseeWish granted ✓
Root for Oklahoma+1.2 pp playoff odds
47 more games that don't move your needle
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Miami at SMU · ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA · ESPN
Memphis at Rice · ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Duke at Clemson · ACC Network
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Navy at North Texas · ESPN2
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State · FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Virginia at California · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.