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#10Alabama Crimson Tide

9–2 · 6–1 SEC
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
77%
SEC title game
36%
Win the SEC
59%
Make the playoff
14%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.6
How the week went: playoff odds 59% → 57% · title-game odds 77% → 100%.
Playoff odds by week
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If Alabama wins out: 47% to win the SEC, 71% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Alabama's path
Your game
…
… · ABC
#10 Alabama at Auburn

Your game. Beat Auburn and your playoff odds are 71%; lose and they drop to 17%.

Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
#9 Notre Dame at Stanford

Stanford winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Notre Dame 49–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗
Root for Stanford+8.2 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#3 Texas A&M at #16 Texas

Texas A&M winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Texas A&M 17–27 TexasWent the other way ✗
Root for Texas A&M+6.9 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State

Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+4.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
LSU at #8 Oklahoma

You beat LSU — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+3.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBS
#6 Oregon at Washington

Washington winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Root for Washington+2.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#12 Miami at #22 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Root for Pittsburgh+2.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · FOX
#1 Ohio State at #15 Michigan

Ohio State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓
Root for Ohio State+2.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
#14 Vanderbilt at #19 Tennessee

You beat Tennessee — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Root for Tennessee+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
#5 Texas Tech at West Virginia

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and West Virginia winning protects it.

Final · Texas Tech 49–0 West VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Root for West Virginia+3.4 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ESPN
#13 Utah at Kansas

Kansas winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗
Root for Kansas+1.8 pp playoff odds
56 more games that don't move your needle
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UCF at BYU · ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Virginia Tech at Virginia · ESPN
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.