The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #5Georgia | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.9–1.1 | 75% | 56% | 95% |
 #21Ole Miss | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.2–1.8 | 45% | 21% | 55% |
 #1Texas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.9–2.1 | 24% | 9% | 88% |
 #24Tennessee | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.4–2.6 | 15% | 5% | 22% |
 #8Alabama | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.5–3.5 | 10% | 3% | 34% |
 #9LSU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.4–3.6 | 7% | 2% | 24% |
 #13South Carolina | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.5–3.5 | 7% | 2% | 19% |
 #19Texas A&M | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.4–3.6 | 6% | 1% | 10% |
 Missouri | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.2–3.8 | 4% | <1% | 5% |
 #18Oklahoma | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.0–5.0 | 2% | <1% | 7% |
 #15Florida | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.2–4.8 | 2% | <1% | 9% |
 Auburn | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.4–4.6 | 2% | <1% | 2% |
 Arkansas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kentucky | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.8–6.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Vanderbilt | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Mississippi State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.1–6.9 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.