๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Fresno State Bulldogs

6โ€“3 ยท 3โ€“2 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 11 ยท 2025
The Week 11 recap

Fresno State was off. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Fresno State wanted
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Impact 1
UNLV
at
Rooted for
Colorado State
Final ยท UNLV 42โ€“10 Colorado StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 9.9-point title-game boost

UNLV won instead, so Fresno State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if Colorado State won8% with the other result9.9-point differenceFresno State MW title-game chance
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TV TBA
Impact 2
San Diego State
at
Rooted for
Hawai'i
Final ยท San Diego State 6โ€“38 Hawai'iWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.6-point title-game boost

San Diego State lost, improving Fresno State's place in the Mountain West standings.

Entering-week projection13% if Hawai'i won10% with the other result2.6-point differenceFresno State MW title-game chance
49 other games had little impact
Massachusetts at Akron ยท CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio ยท ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State ยท ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo ยท ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State ยท ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida ยท ESPN
Houston at UCF ยท FS1
Northwestern at USC ยท FOX
Tulane at Memphis ยท ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State ยท ESPN
Indiana at Penn State ยท FOX
SMU at Boston College ยท ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech ยท ABC
Colorado at West Virginia ยท TNT
James Madison at Marshall ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Temple at Army ยท CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue ยท BTN
Missouri State at Liberty ยท ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
UAB at Rice ยท ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers ยท FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina ยท ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri ยท ABC
Oregon at Iowa ยท CBS
Syracuse at Miami ยท ESPN
Duke at UConn ยท CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona ยท ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU ยท FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin ยท BTN
Stanford at North Carolina ยท The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Air Force at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
California at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia ยท ESPN
LSU at Alabama ยท ABC
Florida at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Nevada at Utah State ยท CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA ยท FOX
Sam Houston at Oregon State ยท The CW Network
The rooting list was:Fresno State is off, then Colorado State, Hawai'i.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.