Fresno State Bulldogs
0–0 · 0–0 MOUNTAIN WEST
Way too early
WEEK 14 · 2026
27%
MW title game
13%
Win the MW
2%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.6
Odds shown as of week 1 — precise rooting leverage exists only once the games in between are played.
If Fresno State wins out: 56% to win the MW, 49% to make the playoff.
Championship week
matchups are decided by the standingsMountain West Championship GameFri/Sat, Dec 4–5 · Campus site, higher seed hosts
UNLVvsNew Mexico18%
UNLVvsHawai'i16%
New MexicovsHawai'i8%
UNLVvsAir Force8%
UNLVvsWyoming6%
Win it and you're in: the five highest-ranked conference champions get automatic playoff bids. Fresno State plays in this game in 27% of the way-too-early sims.
The matchup gets scheduled once the regular season decides it — this page becomes the real game preview automatically. Week 14 kickoff windows and TV land with it.
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.