Fresno State Bulldogs

5–1 · 2–0 MOUNTAIN WEST

In the books

WEEK 7 · 2025

The Week 7 recap

Fresno State lost to Colorado State. Playoff odds moved from 1% to <1%.

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CBSSN

Final

Fresno State

Final · Fresno State 21–49 Colorado StateWent the other way ✗

Colorado State

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CBSSN

Impact 1

Rooted for

Air Force

at

UNLV

Final · Air Force 48–51 UNLVWent the other way ✗

Projected 9.7-point title-game boost

UNLV won instead, so Fresno State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection32% if Air Force won23% with the other result9.7-point differenceFresno State MW title-game chance

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FS1

Impact 2

Rooted for

New Mexico

at

Boise State

Final · New Mexico 25–41 Boise StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.7-point title-game boost

Boise State won instead, so Fresno State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if New Mexico won23% with the other result5.7-point differenceFresno State MW title-game chance

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CBSSN

Impact 3

San José State

at

Rooted for

Wyoming

Final · San José State 28–35 WyomingWish granted ✓

Projected 2.6-point title-game boost

San José State lost, improving Fresno State's place in the Mountain West standings.

Entering-week projection25% if Wyoming won23% with the other result2.6-point differenceFresno State MW title-game chance

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CBSSN

Impact 4

San Diego State

at

Rooted for

Nevada

Final · San Diego State 44–10 NevadaWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

San Diego State won instead, so Fresno State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection25% if Nevada won23% with the other result2.1-point differenceFresno State MW title-game chance

51 other games had little impact

Utah State at Hawai'i

Missouri State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2

Liberty at UTEP · CBSSN

Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State · ESPNU

East Carolina at Tulane · ESPN

Jacksonville State at Sam Houston · CBSSN

Southern Miss at Georgia Southern · ESPN2

South Florida at North Texas · ESPN2

Rutgers at Washington · FS1

Alabama at Missouri · ABC

UCLA at Michigan State · BTN

Ohio State at Illinois · FOX

Pittsburgh at Florida State · ESPN

Stanford at SMU · The CW Network

UCF at Cincinnati · FS1

Houston at Oklahoma State · TNT

Louisiana at James Madison · ESPN2

Charlotte at Army · CBSSN

Miami (OH) at Akron · ESPN+

Toledo at Bowling Green · ESPNU

Washington State at Ole Miss · SEC Network

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+

Massachusetts at Kent State · ESPN+

Oklahoma at Texas · ABC

Northwestern at Penn State · FS1

Nebraska at Maryland · BTN

Indiana at Oregon · CBS

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech · ACC Network

NC State at Notre Dame · Peacock

Wake Forest at Oregon State · The CW Network

Iowa State at Colorado · ESPN

TCU at Kansas State · FOX

App State at Georgia State · ESPN+

Old Dominion at Marshall · ESPN+

Ball State at Western Michigan · ESPN+

Navy at Temple · ESPN2

Arkansas at Tennessee · SEC Network

UAB at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Florida at Texas A&M · ESPN

Iowa at Wisconsin · FS1

UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+

Georgia at Auburn · ABC

Purdue at Minnesota · BTN

Michigan at USC · NBC

Clemson at Boston College · ACC Network

Kansas at Texas Tech · FOX

Rice at UTSA · ESPNU

South Carolina at LSU · SEC Network

BYU at Arizona · ESPN2

Troy at Texas State · ESPN+

Arizona State at Utah · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 7). How the model works.