The Mountain West race
10 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2026
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UNLV | 0–0 | 0–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 47% | 28% | 5% |
 North Dakota State | 0–0 | 1–0 | 5.9–3.1 | 44% | 24% | 3% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.3–2.7 | 42% | 23% | 3% |
 Nevada | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.4–3.6 | 19% | 8% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–0 | 0–1 | 4.1–3.9 | 16% | 6% | <1% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 0–1 | 4.5–4.5 | 16% | 6% | <1% |
 Air Force | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.0–4.0 | 13% | 5% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.9–5.1 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.7–5.3 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.