The Conference USA race
10 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2026
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liberty | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.0–1.0 | 90% | 75% | 20% |
 Jacksonville State | 0–0 | 0–1 | 5.2–2.8 | 34% | 9% | <1% |
 Delaware | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–3.7 | 20% | 5% | <1% |
 Kennesaw State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.1–3.9 | 16% | 4% | <1% |
 Florida International | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–3.7 | 15% | 4% | <1% |
 Western Kentucky | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.8–4.2 | 11% | 2% | <1% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.2–4.8 | 5% | <1% | 0% |
 Missouri State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.1–4.9 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
 New Mexico State | 0–0 | 0–1 | 2.9–5.1 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
 Sam Houston | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.