The Conference USA race
10 teams · two title-game spots
Looking ahead
WEEK 13 · 2026
Week 13 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 6.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liberty | 1–0 | 4–1 | 7.5–0.5 | 96% | 82% | 17% |
 Jacksonville State | 1–0 | 3–2 | 5.8–2.2 | 49% | 10% | <1% |
 New Mexico State | 1–0 | 2–3 | 3.9–4.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% |
 Delaware | 0–1 | 2–3 | 3.7–4.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% |
 Western Kentucky | 0–1 | 1–4 | 2.6–5.4 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–1 | 2–3 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Florida International | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.7–3.3 | 20% | 4% | <1% |
 Kennesaw State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 3.6–4.4 | 8% | <1% | 0% |
 Missouri State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 3.5–4.5 | 6% | <1% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.