The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 13 · 2026

Week 13 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 13.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

…

… · ABC

Texas at Texas A&M

Texas A&M 56%

Who cares:Texas ±31pp Texas A&M ±22pp Ole Miss ±3pp Penn State ±2pp

61 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 28

Penn State at Maryland

Penn State 90%

Who cares:Penn State ±38pp Utah ±5pp Iowa ±5pp Alabama ±5pp

72 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

FRI NOV 27

Nebraska at Iowa

Iowa 88%

Who cares:Iowa ±35pp Ole Miss ±5pp Utah ±5pp Alabama ±4pp

64 ppplayoff odds in play

…

… · ABC

Mississippi State at Ole Miss

Ole Miss 92%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±34pp Iowa ±6pp Texas ±4pp Utah ±3pp

60 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 28

West Virginia at Utah

Utah 97%

Who cares:Utah ±38pp Iowa ±7pp Penn State ±4pp Ole Miss ±4pp

57 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 28

Auburn at Alabama

Alabama 81%

Who cares:Alabama ±29pp Utah ±4pp Penn State ±4pp Iowa ±3pp

51 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 28

Boston College at Miami

Miami 96%

Who cares:Miami ±36pp SMU ±9pp South Florida ±5pp Clemson ±4pp

56 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 28

Coastal Carolina at James Madison

James Madison 98%

Who cares:James Madison ±30pp South Florida ±7pp North Texas ±6pp Boise State ±2pp

49 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 28

Tennessee at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt 68%

Who cares:Vanderbilt ±20pp Tennessee ±8pp Ole Miss ±2pp USC ±2pp

35 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

FRI NOV 27

Tulane at South Florida

South Florida 77%

Who cares:South Florida ±19pp Tulane ±5pp Louisville ±2pp Penn State ±2pp

29 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.