The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
Looking ahead
WEEK 13 · 2026
Week 13 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 6.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toledo | 1–0 | 4–1 | 7.0–1.0 | 84% | 63% | 2% |
 Western Michigan | 1–0 | 3–2 | 6.3–1.7 | 63% | 25% | <1% |
 Ohio | 1–0 | 3–2 | 5.4–2.6 | 20% | 5% | <1% |
 Eastern Michigan | 2–0 | 3–3 | 4.9–3.1 | 12% | 3% | 0% |
 Central Michigan | 1–0 | 3–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 9% | 2% | 0% |
 Bowling Green | 1–0 | 1–4 | 4.2–3.8 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 1–1 | 4–1 | 3.6–4.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Kent State | 1–1 | 2–3 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Buffalo | 0–1 | 2–3 | 4.3–3.7 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Miami (OH) | 0–1 | 2–3 | 3.8–4.2 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Sacramento State | 0–2 | 1–4 | 2.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 0–2 | 1–4 | 1.8–6.2 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 0–1 | 1–4 | 0.8–7.2 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.