The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eastern Michigan | 1–0 | 1–3 | 4.0–4.0 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Sacramento State | 0–1 | 1–3 | 4.3–3.7 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
 Toledo | 0–0 | 2–1 | 6.6–1.4 | 73% | 49% | 2% |
 Western Michigan | 0–0 | 2–1 | 6.3–1.7 | 61% | 34% | <1% |
 Ohio | 0–0 | 1–2 | 5.1–2.9 | 19% | 6% | 0% |
 Central Michigan | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% |
 Buffalo | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.6–3.4 | 11% | 3% | 0% |
 Miami (OH) | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.7–3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% |
 Bowling Green | 0–0 | 0–3 | 3.1–4.9 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–0 | 3–0 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Kent State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 0–0 | 1–2 | 1.2–6.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.