The Conference USA race
10 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liberty | 0–0 | 2–1 | 7.2–0.8 | 93% | 79% | 26% |
 Jacksonville State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 5.3–2.7 | 37% | 8% | <1% |
 Delaware | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 25% | 6% | <1% |
 Florida International | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 18% | 4% | <1% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.6–4.4 | 7% | <1% | 0% |
 Kennesaw State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.2–4.8 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
 Missouri State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.3–4.7 | 5% | <1% | 0% |
 New Mexico State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.0–5.0 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Western Kentucky | 0–0 | 0–3 | 3.1–4.9 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.