🏈 Fan Watch

Liberty Flames

2–1 · 0–0 CONFERENCE USA
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
Week 4 pregame guide

Liberty takes its cleanest game of the year into the building Chadwell built

Liberty routed Ball State 51-15, the biggest win of Jamey Chadwell's tenure. Thursday night at Coastal Carolina, on ESPN, it finds out whether that travels.

Read the rooting guide →
An aerial view of Liberty's Williams Stadium with Flames wordmarks on the field.
Williams Stadium, home of Liberty football.
CreditPhoto creditQuintin SolovievWikimedia Commons · CC BY 4.0Cropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Your game

Liberty at Coastal Carolina
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ESPN
Final
Liberty
Final · Liberty 34–17 Coastal CarolinaWish granted ✓
Coastal Carolina

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Liberty wanted
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ESPN+
Impact 1
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Old Dominion
Final · James Madison 46–20 Old DominionWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.5-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Old Dominion won25% with the other result3.5-point differenceLiberty playoff chance
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ACC Network
Impact 2
Rooted for
Missouri State
at
SMU
Final · Missouri State 24–34 SMUWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

SMU won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Missouri State won26% with the other result2.5-point differenceLiberty playoff chance
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ESPN+
Impact 3
Rooted for
Kennesaw State
at
Arkansas State
Final · Kennesaw State 14–17 Arkansas StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Arkansas State won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if Kennesaw State won25% with the other result2.4-point differenceLiberty playoff chance
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ACC Network
Impact 4
Rooted for
Delaware
at
Virginia
Final · Delaware 3–42 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Delaware won25% with the other result2.4-point differenceLiberty playoff chance
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ESPN+
Impact 5
South Florida
at
Rooted for
Bowling Green
Final · South Florida 14–6 Bowling GreenWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

South Florida won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Bowling Green won25% with the other result2.2-point differenceLiberty playoff chance
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CBSSN
Impact 6
New Mexico
at
Rooted for
New Mexico State
Final · New Mexico 42–18 New Mexico StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

New Mexico won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if New Mexico State won25% with the other result1.4-point differenceLiberty playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 7
Boise State
at
Rooted for
Western Michigan
Final · Boise State 32–7 Western MichiganWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Boise State won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection26% if Western Michigan won25% with the other result1.2-point differenceLiberty playoff chance
50 other games had little impact
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Army at Temple · ESPN
Navy at UAB · ESPN
Northwestern at Indiana · FOX
Clemson at California · ESPN
Texas at Tennessee · ABC
Sam Houston at Texas Tech · TNT
Colorado at Baylor · ESPN2
Virginia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Louisville · ESPN
Illinois at Ohio State · FOX
San Diego State at Toledo · CBSSN
Colorado State at UTSA · ESPNU
UNLV at Akron · ESPN+
Ball State at Kent State · ESPN+
South Alabama at Kentucky · SEC Network
UCLA at Maryland · BTN
Notre Dame at Purdue · Peacock
Northern Illinois at Georgia State · ESPN+
Hawai'i at Wyoming · The CW Network
Ole Miss at Florida · ABC
Oklahoma at Georgia · ESPN
TCU at UCF · FS1
Utah at Iowa State · FOX
Iowa at Michigan · CBS
UConn at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Houston at Georgia Southern · ESPNU
Vanderbilt at Auburn · SEC Network
Nebraska at Michigan State · BTN
Wisconsin at Penn State · ERADM
Central Michigan at Miami · The CW Network
Louisiana at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Carolina at Alabama · ESPN
Kansas State at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at West Virginia · FS1
Southern Miss at Tulane · ESPN+
Texas A&M at LSU · ABC
Arizona at Washington State · CBS
Oregon at USC · NBC
Troy at Utah State · CBSSN
App State at NC State · ESPNU
Missouri at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Tulsa at Arkansas · SECN+
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Oregon State at UTEP · MW+
Massachusetts at Sacramento State · ESPN+
Rice at Fresno State · The CW Network
Georgia Tech at Stanford · ESPN
Air Force at Nevada · FS1
Minnesota at Washington · FOX
The rooting list was:Liberty, then Old Dominion, Missouri State, Kennesaw State, Delaware, Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Western Michigan.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.