๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Liberty Flames

1โ€“1 ยท 0โ€“0 CONFERENCE USA
In the books
WEEK 3 ยท 2026
Week 3 pregame guide

Liberty carries heavy expectations into Ball State week

Liberty is heavily favored against Ball State, with three outside results offering smaller boosts to its playoff chances.

Read the rooting guide โ†’
An aerial view of Liberty's Williams Stadium with Flames wordmarks on the field.
Williams Stadium, home of Liberty football.
CreditPhoto creditQuintin SolovievWikimedia Commons ยท CC BY 4.0Cropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Your game

Ball State at Liberty
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Final
Ball State
Final ยท Ball State 15โ€“51 LibertyWish granted โœ“
Liberty

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Liberty wanted
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 1
James Madison
at
Rooted for
San Diego State
Final ยท James Madison 26โ€“13 San Diego StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.0-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection22% if San Diego State won19% with the other result3-point differenceLiberty playoff chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 2
North Texas
at
Rooted for
Texas State
Final ยท North Texas 35โ€“49 Texas StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Texas State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Liberty's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection21% if Texas State won19% with the other result2-point differenceLiberty playoff chance
54 other games had little impact
Coastal Carolina at Delaware ยท CBSSN
Florida International at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Baylor ยท ESPNU
Nevada at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Syracuse at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN
Miami at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Houston at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Georgia at Arkansas ยท ABC
Tulane at Kansas State ยท ESPN2
Bowling Green at Iowa State ยท ESPNU
Arizona State at Kansas ยท FS1
North Carolina at Clemson ยท ESPN
Akron at Minnesota ยท BTN
Kent State at Ohio State ยท FOX
Buffalo at Penn State ยท BTN
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin ยท Peacock
NC State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Wyoming at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Temple at Toledo ยท CBSSN
Florida State at Alabama ยท ABC
Kentucky at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati ยท ESPN+
Utah State at Utah ยท FOX
SMU at Louisville ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Michigan ยท BTN
USC at Rutgers ยท CBS
Stanford at Duke ยท The CW Network
Western Kentucky at Indiana ยท Peacock
Mississippi State at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
East Carolina at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at App State ยท ESPN+
Marshall at Missouri State ยท CBSSN
Florida at Auburn ยท ESPN
Troy at Missouri ยท SECN+
Georgia State at UCF ยท ESPN+
UConn at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Michigan at Rice ยท ESPN+
Ohio at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
New Mexico at Oklahoma ยท ESPN2
BYU at Colorado State ยท CBS
Colorado at Northwestern ยท FOX
West Virginia at Virginia ยท ACC Network
Virginia Tech at Maryland ยท FS1
Michigan State at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Kennesaw State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
UTSA at Texas ยท SECN+
Arkansas State at TCU ยท ESPNU
UAB at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Arizona ยท TNT
North Dakota State at Sacramento State ยท ESPN
Purdue at UCLA ยท BTN
Fresno State at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Liberty, then San Diego State, Texas State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.