The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 0–0 | 3–0 | 7.4–0.6 | 90% | 79% | 34% |
 Louisiana | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.1–2.9 | 29% | 5% | <1% |
 South Alabama | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.7–3.3 | 21% | 3% | <1% |
 Troy | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 18% | 3% | <1% |
 Louisiana Tech | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.6–3.4 | 19% | 3% | <1% |
 Marshall | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.6–3.4 | 4% | 2% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.1–3.9 | 11% | 1% | <1% |
 Georgia Southern | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.7–4.3 | 3% | 1% | <1% |
 App State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.7–4.3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Old Dominion | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.3–4.7 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.1–4.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Coastal Carolina | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Southern Miss | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.6–5.4 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 0–0 | 0–3 | 1.5–6.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.