The Pac-12 race
8 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
8 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.9–2.1 | 57% | 33% | 5% |
 Fresno State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.8–2.2 | 53% | 31% | 5% |
 Washington State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.2–2.8 | 34% | 16% | 1% |
 Texas State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.9–3.1 | 25% | 10% | <1% |
 San Diego State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.7–3.3 | 22% | 8% | <1% |
 Utah State | 0–0 | 0–3 | 2.4–4.6 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.2–4.8 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Oregon State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 1.9–5.1 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.