Texas State Bobcats
0–0 · 0–0 SUN BELT
Way too early
WEEK 4 · 2026
46%
Sun Belt title game
25%
Win the Sun Belt
4%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.4
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Incarnate Word.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Texas State's pathYour game
TBD
Incarnate Word at Texas State
Your game. Just win — and don't let it get interesting.
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 26
James Madison at Old Dominion
Old Dominion winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
James Madison 59%
56 more games that don't move your needle
South Florida at Bowling Green
Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Clemson at California
Navy at UAB
South Carolina at Alabama
Tulsa at Arkansas
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Ole Miss at Florida
Oklahoma at Georgia
Texas A&M at LSU
Missouri at Mississippi State
Texas at Tennessee
Arizona at Washington State
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Houston at Georgia Southern
Colorado at Baylor
Kansas State at Cincinnati
TCU at UCF
Utah at Iowa State
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Central Michigan at Miami
Delaware at Virginia
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Missouri State at SMU
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Wake Forest at Louisville
Northwestern at Indiana
UCLA at Maryland
Iowa at Michigan
Nebraska at Michigan State
Illinois at Ohio State
Wisconsin at Penn State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Oregon at USC
Minnesota at Washington
Rice at Fresno State
San Diego State at Toledo
Troy at Utah State
Oregon State at UTEP
Colorado State at UTSA
Boise State at Western Michigan
UConn at Miami (OH)
Army at Temple
Louisiana at Charlotte
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Southern Miss at Tulane
Air Force at Nevada
Hawai'i at Wyoming
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
UNLV at Akron
App State at NC State
South Alabama at Kentucky
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Ball State at Kent State
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.