Torrance Burgess Jr. carried 25 times for 214 yards against North Texas, Davian Jackson broke a 57-yard touchdown run, and Texas State piled up 337 rushing yards at 6.9 a carry with the offensive line allowing no sacks. The Bobcats won 49-35 at home for their first win of the season, and they did it without their receiver room anywhere near whole. Beau Sparks, back from a one-game absence, caught one pass for six yards. Zechariah Sample made his season debut and caught two for seven.
Brad Jackson completed 16 of 22 for 268 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions, and Texas State did not turn the ball over, the cleanest offensive game of a season that began with a loss at Texas, the program's first trip to Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
The run game is the answer, and that's fine, up to a point
Texas State's 2025 offense averaged 36.5 points and 472.8 yards a game, split nearly evenly between 222.1 rushing yards and 250.8 passing. The North Texas game tilted hard toward the run, and it worked. What fans should watch Saturday is whether that tilt is a choice or a necessity. If Burgess and Davian Jackson are carrying the load again because Chris Dawn Jr. is the only healthy proven target, Texas State is heading into its Pac-12 opener at San Diego State with one functional half of its identity.
Worth remembering, the win over North Texas came as a 3-point favorite in a game that produced 84 combined points. It was a modest favorite winning a shootout, not a statement of control. The defense gave up 483 passing yards to Tayven Jackson, a career high for him. Incarnate Word is not going to test that secondary the way North Texas did, which means Saturday tells you more about the offense than the defense.
One thing has settled. Jacob Bonilla made all seven extra points and missed only a 46-yard field goal. The kicking job is no longer a worry.
Texas State vs. Incarnate Word: just win it clean
Kickoff is 5 p.m. Central Saturday in San Marcos on USA Network, and the model gives Texas State a 98.7% chance. That number is as lopsided as it looks, but the series is not ceremonial. These teams have met twice, both in San Marcos. Texas State won 48-17 in 2016, and Incarnate Word won 42-34 in 2021 behind Cameron Ward's 376 yards and four touchdowns, dropping Texas State to 1-2 that year while Incarnate Word improved to 2-1.
Nobody should spend the week worried about an upset. But the reason to watch is narrower and more useful. It is who lines up outside for Brad Jackson, and whether the passing game that produced four touchdowns last week still exists when the depth chart thins.
Rice at Fresno State: root for Rice
A Rice win nudges Texas State's conference title game odds to 27.9% rather than 25.5%, a 2.4-point difference between the two outcomes, which is real but small. It is also unlikely. Rice wins this about 5% of the time. Kickoff is 9 p.m. Central Saturday on The CW Network. Put it on in the background.
Full breakdown at the interactive guide, and the methodology explains where these numbers come from.