Missouri State Bears
1–2 · 0–0 CONFERENCE USA
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
Week 4 pregame guide
Missouri State's best offense yet meets the building Casey Woods used to work in
The Bears gained 506 yards on Marshall and scored 24. At No. 22 SMU, with Kendrick Raphael waiting, that math does not survive.
Read the rooting guide →The model sees Missouri State as an extreme playoff long shot.
Credit
Photo creditMissouri State AthleticsWikimedia Commons · Public domainCropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.Your game
Missouri State at SMUFinal
Missouri State
Final · Missouri State 24–34 SMUWent the other way ✗
SMU
Nothing else moves the path
the rest is background footballNothing else meaningfully changes Missouri State's path. Watch the rest because it is football.
57 other games had little impact
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Liberty at Coastal Carolina · ESPN
Army at Temple · ESPN
Navy at UAB · ESPN
Northwestern at Indiana · FOX
Clemson at California · ESPN
Texas at Tennessee · ABC
Sam Houston at Texas Tech · TNT
Colorado at Baylor · ESPN2
Virginia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Louisville · ESPN
Illinois at Ohio State · FOX
San Diego State at Toledo · CBSSN
Colorado State at UTSA · ESPNU
UNLV at Akron · ESPN+
Ball State at Kent State · ESPN+
South Alabama at Kentucky · SEC Network
UCLA at Maryland · BTN
Notre Dame at Purdue · Peacock
Northern Illinois at Georgia State · ESPN+
Hawai'i at Wyoming · The CW Network
Ole Miss at Florida · ABC
Oklahoma at Georgia · ESPN
TCU at UCF · FS1
Utah at Iowa State · FOX
Iowa at Michigan · CBS
Boise State at Western Michigan · ESPN2
UConn at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
New Mexico at New Mexico State · CBSSN
Houston at Georgia Southern · ESPNU
Vanderbilt at Auburn · SEC Network
Nebraska at Michigan State · BTN
Wisconsin at Penn State · ERADM
South Florida at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Delaware at Virginia · ACC Network
James Madison at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Miami · The CW Network
Louisiana at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Carolina at Alabama · ESPN
Kansas State at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at West Virginia · FS1
Southern Miss at Tulane · ESPN+
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State · ESPN+
Texas A&M at LSU · ABC
Arizona at Washington State · CBS
Oregon at USC · NBC
Troy at Utah State · CBSSN
App State at NC State · ESPNU
Missouri at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Tulsa at Arkansas · SECN+
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Oregon State at UTEP · MW+
Massachusetts at Sacramento State · ESPN+
Rice at Fresno State · The CW Network
Georgia Tech at Stanford · ESPN
Air Force at Nevada · FS1
Minnesota at Washington · FOX
The rooting list was:Missouri State. Nothing else meaningfully moves the path.
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.