The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 2 · 2026

Week 2 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 2.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT SEP 12

Penn State at Temple

Penn State 95%

Who cares:Penn State ±32pp Ole Miss ±5pp Utah ±5pp Alabama ±4pp

59 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 12

Iowa State at Iowa

Iowa 86%

Who cares:Iowa ±29pp Penn State ±4pp Utah ±4pp Vanderbilt ±3pp

51 ppplayoff odds in play

…

… · ABC

Ohio State at Texas

Ohio State 71%

Who cares:Texas ±22pp Utah ±3pp Alabama ±3pp Miami ±2pp

42 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 12

Arkansas at Utah

Utah 90%

Who cares:Utah ±26pp Penn State ±4pp Iowa ±4pp Alabama ±3pp

47 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 12

Alabama at Kentucky

Alabama 85%

Who cares:Alabama ±22pp Penn State ±3pp Iowa ±3pp Texas A&M ±3pp

36 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 12

South Florida at Army

South Florida 74%

Who cares:South Florida ±18pp North Texas ±2pp Louisville ±1pp Old Dominion ±1pp

27 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 12

Charlotte at Ole Miss

Ole Miss 99%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±25pp Iowa ±6pp Boise State ±1pp

32 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 12

Arizona State at Texas A&M

Texas A&M 83%

Who cares:Texas A&M ±11pp Texas ±2pp Utah ±2pp Miami ±2pp

17 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 12

Louisiana at USC

USC 94%

Who cares:USC ±13pp Iowa ±4pp Penn State ±3pp North Texas ±2pp

21 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 12

Oklahoma at Michigan

Michigan 59%

Who cares:Oklahoma ±4pp Michigan ±2pp

7 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 2, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.