The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#3Notre Dame1–094%#5Indiana1–093%#1Ohio State1–093%#7Miami1–074%#2Georgia1–071%#4Texas1–065%#13Texas Tech1–065%#6Oregon1–056%#16Penn State1–047%#9Ole Miss1–042%#10Texas A&M1–042%#20Utah1–038%

#7Miami1–0 · ACC▼ −1pp74%

#2Georgia1–0 · SEC▲ +6pp71%

#4Texas1–0 · SEC▲ +2pp65%

#13Texas Tech1–0 · Big 1265%

#6Oregon1–0 · Big Ten▼ −16pp56%

#16Penn State1–0 · Big Ten▲ +3pp47%

#9Ole Miss1–0 · SEC42%

#10Texas A&M1–0 · SEC▼ −2pp42%

#20Utah1–0 · Big 1238%

#12Alabama1–0 · SEC▲ +1pp37%

James Madison1–0 · Sun Belt▼ −2pp36%

#14USC2–0 · Big Ten▼ −1pp33%

#11Oklahoma1–0 · SEC▲ +1pp33%

#21Iowa1–0 · Big Ten30%

#8LSU1–0 · SEC▲ +3pp25%

#17SMU1–0 · ACC▲ +3pp22%

Liberty0–1 · Conference USA21%

South Florida1–0 · American Athletic19%

…

… · ABC

#1Ohio Stateat#4Texas

Final · #1 Ohio State 23–24 #4 Texas

…

… · FOX

#11OklahomaatMichigan

Final · #11 Oklahoma 10–17 Michigan

…

… · FOX

Arizonaat#15BYU

Final · Arizona 17–28 #15 BYU

…

… · CBSSN

South FloridaatArmy

Final · South Florida 28–24 Army

…

… · ESPN

#18TennesseeatGeorgia Tech

Final · #18 Tennessee 45–24 Georgia Tech

…

… · ESPN2

#16Penn StateatTemple

Final · #16 Penn State 27–9 Temple

…

… · ABC

#12AlabamaatKentucky

Final · #12 Alabama 45–17 Kentucky

…

… · FOX

#23MissouriatKansas

Final · #23 Missouri 38–21 Kansas

…

… · ESPN

#6OregonatOklahoma State

Final · #6 Oregon 31–39 Oklahoma State

…

… · NBC

Iowa Stateat#21Iowa

Final · Iowa State 13–16 #21 Iowa

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 2, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 2). How the model works.