The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 8 · 2026

Week 8 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 8.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Ole Miss at Texas

Texas 52%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±32pp Texas ±27pp Vanderbilt ±2pp Miami ±1pp

62 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Texas A&M at Alabama

Alabama 63%

Who cares:Alabama ±31pp Texas A&M ±23pp Iowa ±2pp

56 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Iowa at Minnesota

Iowa 82%

Who cares:Iowa ±32pp Penn State ±6pp Ole Miss ±4pp Utah ±3pp

62 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Pittsburgh at Miami

Miami 87%

Who cares:Miami ±37pp SMU ±7pp South Florida ±6pp Pittsburgh ±6pp

63 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Houston at Utah

Utah 92%

Who cares:Utah ±33pp Penn State ±6pp Alabama ±4pp Iowa ±3pp

58 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

THU OCT 22

James Madison at App State

James Madison 93%

Who cares:James Madison ±26pp South Florida ±7pp North Texas ±5pp Boise State ±1pp

43 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Vanderbilt at Kentucky

Vanderbilt 82%

Who cares:Vanderbilt ±16pp Ole Miss ±3pp Texas ±2pp Alabama ±2pp

30 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

USC at Wisconsin

USC 80%

Who cares:USC ±17pp Penn State ±3pp Ole Miss ±3pp Utah ±2pp

28 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Tennessee at South Carolina

Tennessee 53%

Who cares:Tennessee ±6pp South Carolina ±1pp Alabama ±1pp Texas ±1pp

9 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

California at SMU

SMU 93%

Who cares:SMU ±17pp USC ±2pp Miami ±2pp Louisville ±1pp

24 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.