The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 8 · 2026

Week 8 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 8.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–043%

→

Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

Miami0–055%

→

Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–041%

→

Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–046%

→

Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Ole Miss at Texas

Texas 53%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±25pp Texas ±24pp Texas A&M ±1pp Georgia ±1pp

54 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Texas A&M at Alabama

Alabama 60%

Who cares:Alabama ±23pp Texas A&M ±23pp Vanderbilt ±1pp Tennessee ±1pp

49 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Pittsburgh at Miami

Miami 87%

Who cares:Miami ±29pp Pittsburgh ±7pp SMU ±4pp Louisville ±4pp

49 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Tennessee at South Carolina

South Carolina 53%

Who cares:Tennessee ±16pp South Carolina ±8pp Georgia ±2pp Texas ±1pp

29 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Iowa at Minnesota

Iowa 74%

Who cares:Iowa ±25pp Penn State ±3pp Utah ±2pp Vanderbilt ±2pp

36 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Texas Tech at Cincinnati

Texas Tech 83%

Who cares:Texas Tech ±28pp Utah ±6pp BYU ±3pp Kansas State ±1pp

39 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Oregon at Illinois

Oregon 77%

Who cares:Oregon ±23pp Illinois ±3pp Iowa ±3pp Vanderbilt ±2pp

36 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Vanderbilt at Kentucky

Vanderbilt 73%

Who cares:Vanderbilt ±21pp Missouri ±2pp Alabama ±2pp Ole Miss ±1pp

33 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

THU OCT 22

James Madison at App State

James Madison 88%

Who cares:James Madison ±23pp South Florida ±3pp Texas State ±2pp North Texas ±2pp

37 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 24

USC at Wisconsin

USC 70%

Who cares:USC ±19pp Iowa ±3pp Ohio State ±2pp Miami ±1pp

27 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.