Texas Longhorns
0–0 · 0–0 SEC
Way too early
WEEK 2 · 2026
24%
SEC title game
12%
Win the SEC
42%
Make the playoff
12%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.6
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-2 job: beat Ohio State.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Texas's pathYour game
…
… · ABC
Ohio State at Texas
Your game. Beat Ohio State and your playoff odds are 51%; lose and they drop to 35%.
Ohio State 54%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 12
Mississippi State at Minnesota
Mississippi State visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.
Minnesota 62%
TBD
SAT SEP 12
Alabama at Kentucky
SEC race: Alabama losing helps your spot in the standings.
Alabama 71%
TBD
SAT SEP 12
Oklahoma at Michigan
Oklahoma visits your schedule in week 6 — keep them ranked.
Michigan 56%
TBD
SAT SEP 12
Buffalo at Florida International
Florida International winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Florida International 66%
TBD
SAT SEP 12
UTSA at Texas State
UTSA visits your schedule in week 3 — keep them ranked.
Texas State 57%
41 more games that don't move your needle
Rutgers at Boston College
Arkansas at Utah
Southern Miss at Auburn
Western Kentucky at Georgia
Charlotte at Ole Miss
Missouri at Kansas
Tennessee at Georgia Tech
Arizona State at Texas A&M
Delaware at Vanderbilt
Washington State at Kansas State
Oregon at Oklahoma State
Texas Tech at Oregon State
Iowa State at Iowa
UCF at Pittsburgh
Arizona at BYU
California at Syracuse
Duke at Illinois
Georgia Southern at Clemson
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
Wake Forest at Purdue
Eastern Michigan at Michigan State
Bowling Green at Nebraska
Penn State at Temple
San Diego State at UCLA
Maryland at UConn
Louisiana at USC
Utah State at Washington
Memphis at Boise State
South Florida at Army
Navy at Florida Atlantic
UNLV at North Texas
Tulsa at Sam Houston
UL Monroe at UAB
App State at East Carolina
South Alabama at Tulane
New Mexico State at Hawai'i
Jacksonville State at Ohio
Louisiana Tech at LSU
Georgia State at Kennesaw State
Middle Tennessee at Marshall
Rice at Notre Dame
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 2, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.