🏈 Fan Watch

#1Texas Longhorns

4–0 · 1–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
The Week 5 recap

Texas won at Tennessee with its defense, and the bye is about the penalties

Colin Simmons' five sacks and Jelani McDonald's last-play breakup carried a 20-17 win in Knoxville. Now the bye, an 11-penalty problem, and four games worth watching.

Read the rooting guide →
Texas hosts Florida Atlantic at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium.
Texas hosts Florida Atlantic in Austin.
CreditPhoto creditDave Wilson from Austin, Texas, USAWikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0Cropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Texas wanted
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ABC
Impact 1
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Alabama 56–23 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 8.0-point title-game boost

Alabama won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection55% if Mississippi State won47% with the other result8-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
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SEC Network
Impact 2
Rooted for
Vanderbilt
at
Georgia
Final · Vanderbilt 14–38 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 7.6-point title-game boost

Georgia won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection56% if Vanderbilt won48% with the other result7.6-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 3
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
North Carolina
Final · Notre Dame 37–26 North CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.7-point first-round-bye boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection52% if North Carolina won49% with the other result3.7-point differenceTexas first-round bye chance
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ABC
Impact 4
Miami
at
Rooted for
Clemson
Final · Miami 41–13 ClemsonWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.0-point first-round-bye boost

Miami won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if Clemson won48% with the other result3-point differenceTexas first-round bye chance
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ABC
Impact 5
Florida
at
Rooted for
Missouri
Final · Florida 17–45 MissouriWish granted ✓
Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

Florida lost, improving Texas's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection50% if Missouri won48% with the other result2.1-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
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ESPN+
Impact 6
Toledo
at
Rooted for
Ball State
Final · Toledo 39–24 Ball StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point first-round-bye boost

Toledo won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if Ball State won49% with the other result2.4-point differenceTexas first-round bye chance
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ESPN
Impact 7
Auburn
at
Rooted for
Tennessee
Final · Auburn 14–24 TennesseeWish granted ✓
Projected 2.0-point title-game boost

Auburn lost, improving Texas's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection49% if Tennessee won47% with the other result2-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
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BTN
Impact 8
Purdue
at
Rooted for
Illinois
Final · Purdue 24–17 IllinoisWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.3-point first-round-bye boost

Purdue won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection49% if Illinois won47% with the other result2.3-point differenceTexas first-round bye chance
48 other games had little impact
Ohio State at Iowa · CBS
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State · CBSSN
North Texas at Tulsa · ESPN
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Liberty at Delaware · CBSSN
Penn State at Northwestern · FOX
Memphis at Charlotte · ESPN+
Middle Tennessee at Kansas · ESPNU
UCF at Houston · ESPN2
West Virginia at Iowa State · TNT
Boston College at SMU · The CW Network
Stanford at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Syracuse at UConn · CBSSN
Michigan at Minnesota · FOX
Navy at Air Force · CBS
Michigan State at Wisconsin · BTN
Western Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
California at UNLV · CBSSN
Louisville at NC State · ACC Network
Virginia at Florida State · ESPN2
Wyoming at North Dakota State · The CW Network
Akron at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Ohio at Kent State · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Old Dominion at Georgia State · ESPN+
Marshall at James Madison · ESPNU
Maryland at Nebraska · FS1
UTEP at New Mexico · MW+
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Oregon State at Colorado State · USA Network
Arkansas at Texas A&M · ESPN2
BYU at TCU · ESPN
UTSA at Rice · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
UL Monroe at South Alabama · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Colorado · FOX
Washington at USC · NBC
Utah State at Boise State · CBSSN
Temple at South Florida · ESPNU
Army at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Indiana at Rutgers · BTN
Arkansas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Fresno State at Washington State · USA Network
Baylor at Arizona State · ESPN
Texas State at San Diego State · The CW Network
Cincinnati at Arizona · FOX
San José State at Hawai'i · MW+
The rooting list was:Texas is off, then Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Clemson, Missouri, Ball State, Tennessee, Illinois.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.