Jelani McDonald got a hand on Faizon Brandon's Hail Mary in the end zone on the last play in Knoxville, and Texas walked out with a 20-17 win after Tennessee had cut the lead to three on a Mike Matthews touchdown catch with 1:22 left. Colin Simmons had already spent the night in the backfield with five sacks, tying the Texas single-game program record, as the defense piled up 10 sacks. Texas is 4-0 and idle this week before Oklahoma in Dallas.
That is the win, and it belongs almost entirely to one side of the ball. Texas held Tennessee to 221 total yards, 70 rushing, 151 passing, nearly 290 below the Volunteers' season average, with Matthews' 30-yarder the only touchdown pass allowed. Will Muschamp took over a defense that had just sent four players to the NFL draft, replacing five-year coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, and this was the first time his group faced a real Power Four offense on the road. It answered. Simmons, who left the UTSA game at halftime in a walking boot with an injury Sarkisian called precautionary, tied the single-game record with five sacks, which retires the one injury question fans were carrying into the SEC opener.
The part that hasn't arrived
The offense that was supposed to raise the ceiling has not. Arch Manning went 14-of-19 for 201 yards with an interception and no touchdown pass, while taking six sacks, and center Connor Robertson sailed a snap over his head for a 12-yard loss. Manning's own verdict afterward was blunt. "It's not about me. I didn't play very well. But our team played great. Defense played well."
The run game went with it. Texas managed 61 yards at 1.7 yards per attempt. Raleek Brown carried it 17 times for 67 yards and scored both touchdowns; Hollywood Smothers was injured and did not factor into the rushing attack. The two portal backs were brought in to share a dependable load. Four games in, that has not happened, and how Steve Sarkisian splits those carries in Dallas is now a live question.
Then came the penalties, 11 for 115 yards, seven of them before halftime. Sarkisian said flatly, "We have to fix it. That can't continue as we move forward." Against Tennessee the defense could absorb it. The schedule ahead is road-heavy late, Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M in the final four, and a defense does not bail you out twice in Baton Rouge. If you want one thing out of this open week, it is fewer flags, not a new wrinkle.
Texas sits around 89% to make the playoff and roughly 49% to reach the SEC title game, so nothing this weekend is urgent. But four games move those numbers a little, and one of them moves it more than the rest.
Alabama at Mississippi State: root for Mississippi State
This is the one worth planning around. Alabama is the SEC team most directly in front of Texas in the championship-game race, and a loss in Starkville puts a conference defeat on its ledger while Texas is off. Mississippi State wins about 28% of the time. Texas' title-game odds land near 55% if the Bulldogs pull it off and closer to 47% if Alabama handles it. An 8.6-point swing between the two branches, the largest available all weekend. ABC, Saturday afternoon.
Vanderbilt at Georgia: root for Vanderbilt
Same mechanism, longer odds. Georgia is the other team stacked ahead of Texas in the SEC standings, and Vanderbilt is about 11% to win in Athens. The payoff is real, roughly 55% title-game odds for Texas if Vanderbilt wins against about 48% if Georgia holds serve, worth 6.2 points, but you are hoping for an upset, not counting on one. SEC Network.
Miami at Clemson: root for Clemson
Nothing to do with the SEC. Miami is competing with Texas for one of the four first-round byes, and Clemson knocking off the No. 4 team would thin that field. Clemson wins about 16% of the time; Texas' bye odds sit near 52% in that branch versus about 48% if Miami wins, a 3.5-point difference. ABC.
Indiana at Rutgers: root for Rutgers
Rutgers is a long shot here.
Rutgers is a 3% home underdog against No. 6 Indiana, and the effect is national playoff math, not anything in Texas' conference. One fewer unbeaten contender is worth about 2.3 points on the Longhorns' playoff odds, the smallest of the four swings on this page.
Full numbers and matchups are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are on the methodology page.