Texas Longhorns
0–0 · 0–0 SEC
Way too early
WEEK 3 · 2026
24%
SEC title game
12%
Win the SEC
42%
Make the playoff
12%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.6
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-3 job: beat UTSA.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Texas's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 19
UTSA at Texas
Your game. Beat UTSA and your playoff odds are 44%; lose and they drop to 30%.
Texas 89%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 19
Georgia at Arkansas
SEC race: Georgia losing helps your spot in the standings; Arkansas visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.
Georgia 78%
…
… · ABC
LSU at Ole Miss
SEC race: Ole Miss losing helps your spot in the standings; LSU visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.
Ole Miss 84%
TBD
SAT SEP 19
Florida at Auburn
Florida visits your schedule in week 7 — keep them ranked.
Auburn 67%
52 more games that don't move your needle
Syracuse at Pittsburgh
Miami at Wake Forest
Florida State at Alabama
Troy at Missouri
New Mexico at Oklahoma
Mississippi State at South Carolina
Kennesaw State at Tennessee
Kentucky at Texas A&M
NC State at Vanderbilt
Tulane at Kansas State
Northern Illinois at Arizona
BYU at Colorado State
Colorado at Northwestern
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati
Bowling Green at Iowa State
Arkansas State at TCU
Georgia State at UCF
Utah State at Utah
Virginia at West Virginia
Houston at Texas Tech
Kansas at Arizona State
North Carolina at Clemson
SMU at Louisville
Stanford at Duke
Virginia Tech at Maryland
Western Kentucky at Indiana
UTEP at Michigan
Akron at Minnesota
Kent State at Ohio State
Buffalo at Penn State
USC at Rutgers
Purdue at UCLA
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin
James Madison at San Diego State
Fresno State at San José State
North Texas at Texas State
UConn at Southern Miss
East Carolina at Old Dominion
Florida International at Florida Atlantic
Western Michigan at Rice
Temple at Toledo
UAB at Louisiana
Nevada at Middle Tennessee
Wyoming at Central Michigan
Charlotte at App State
Ball State at Liberty
Ohio at South Alabama
Louisiana Tech at Baylor
Coastal Carolina at Delaware
Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State
Marshall at Missouri State
Michigan State at Notre Dame
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.