Texas Longhorns
0–0 · 0–0 SEC
Way too early
WEEK 4 · 2026
24%
SEC title game
12%
Win the SEC
42%
Make the playoff
12%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.6
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Tennessee.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Texas's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Texas at Tennessee
Your game. Beat Tennessee and your playoff odds are 51%; lose and they drop to 33%.
Texas 51%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Oklahoma at Georgia
SEC race: Georgia losing helps your spot in the standings; Oklahoma visits your schedule in week 6 — keep them ranked.
Georgia 79%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Ole Miss at Florida
SEC race: Ole Miss losing helps your spot in the standings; Florida visits your schedule in week 7 — keep them ranked.
Ole Miss 73%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
South Carolina at Alabama
SEC race: Alabama losing helps your spot in the standings.
Alabama 73%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
Arkansas State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Arkansas State 64%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Texas A&M at LSU
SEC race: Texas A&M losing helps your spot in the standings; LSU visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.
Texas A&M 56%
51 more games that don't move your needle
Missouri at Mississippi State
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Clemson at California
Navy at UAB
Tulsa at Arkansas
Arizona at Washington State
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Houston at Georgia Southern
Colorado at Baylor
Kansas State at Cincinnati
TCU at UCF
Utah at Iowa State
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Central Michigan at Miami
Delaware at Virginia
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Missouri State at SMU
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Wake Forest at Louisville
Northwestern at Indiana
UCLA at Maryland
Iowa at Michigan
Nebraska at Michigan State
Illinois at Ohio State
Wisconsin at Penn State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Oregon at USC
Minnesota at Washington
Rice at Fresno State
San Diego State at Toledo
Troy at Utah State
Oregon State at UTEP
Colorado State at UTSA
Boise State at Western Michigan
UConn at Miami (OH)
Army at Temple
Louisiana at Charlotte
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Southern Miss at Tulane
South Florida at Bowling Green
Air Force at Nevada
Hawai'i at Wyoming
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
UNLV at Akron
App State at NC State
South Alabama at Kentucky
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Ball State at Kent State
James Madison at Old Dominion
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.