Texas Longhorns

0–0 · 0–0 SEC

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

20%

SEC title game

Win the SEC

27%

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 8.9

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-4 job: beat Tennessee.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4

If Texas wins out: 51% to win the SEC, 100% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas at Tennessee

Your game. Beat Tennessee and your playoff odds are 38%; lose and they drop to 14%.

Texas 52%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Wisconsin at Penn State

Wisconsin winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Penn State 92%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Utah at Iowa State

Iowa State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 76%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Michigan winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Iowa 54%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Ole Miss at Florida

Florida visits your schedule in week 7 — keep them ranked.

Ole Miss 79%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

South Carolina at Alabama

South Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Alabama 80%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oklahoma at Georgia

SEC race: Georgia losing helps your spot in the standings; Oklahoma visits your schedule in week 6 — keep them ranked.

Georgia 81%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oregon at USC

Oregon winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Oregon 63%

49 more games that don't move your needle

Texas A&M at LSU

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Clemson at California

Navy at UAB

Tulsa at Arkansas

Missouri at Mississippi State

Arizona at Washington State

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Houston at Georgia Southern

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Central Michigan at Miami

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

Northwestern at Indiana

UCLA at Maryland

Nebraska at Michigan State

Illinois at Ohio State

Notre Dame at Purdue

Minnesota at Washington

Rice at Fresno State

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State

Oregon State at UTEP

Colorado State at UTSA

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Army at Temple

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

Southern Miss at Tulane

South Florida at Bowling Green

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

South Alabama at Kentucky

New Mexico at New Mexico State

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

James Madison at Old Dominion

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.