Texas Longhorns
0–0 · 0–0 SEC
Way too early
WEEK 1 · 2026
24%
SEC title game
12%
Win the SEC
42%
Make the playoff
12%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.6
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-1 job: beat Texas State.
If Texas wins out: 51% to win the SEC, 100% to make the playoff.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Texas's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Texas State at Texas
Your game. Beat Texas State and your playoff odds are 44%; lose and they drop to 31%.
Texas 90%
Just win
No other game this week meaningfully moves Texas's odds. Enjoy the football.
48 more games that don't move your needle
Hawai'i at Stanford
Memphis at UNLV
San José State at USC
New Mexico State at Florida State
North Carolina at TCU · ESPN
NC State at Virginia · ESPN
Akron at Wake Forest
Massachusetts at Rutgers
Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Toledo at Michigan State
Fresno State at USC
San José State at Eastern Michigan
Miami at Stanford · ESPN
Florida Atlantic at Florida
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
UTEP at Oklahoma
Kent State at South Carolina
Missouri State at Texas A&M
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Boston College at Cincinnati
Oregon State at Houston
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh
Tulane at Duke
UCLA at California
UAB at Illinois
North Texas at Indiana
Northern Illinois at Iowa
Western Michigan at Michigan
Ohio at Nebraska
Ball State at Ohio State
Boise State at Oregon
Marshall at Penn State
Washington State at Washington
Wyoming at Colorado State
Arkansas State at Memphis
Florida International at South Florida
Western Kentucky at Nevada
UNLV at Hawai'i
Central Michigan at New Mexico
Liberty at James Madison
Sam Houston at Troy
East Carolina at Alabama · ABC
Baylor at Auburn · ABC
Clemson at LSU · ABC
Louisville at Ole Miss · ABC
Notre Dame at Wisconsin
SMU at Florida State · ESPN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.