Texas scored on eight of nine offensive possessions, including all five after halftime, and beat Texas State 59-7 in its opener. Arch Manning completed 20 of 27 passes for 305 yards, four touchdowns and one interception; Ryan Wingo supplied 121 receiving yards and a touchdown, while Cam Coleman scored twice in his Texas debut. That is exactly the kind of expanded passing production Texas wanted before Ohio State arrived.
The backfield also changed Manning’s burden. Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown combined for 21 carries and three total touchdowns, while Manning ran only three times. Smothers broke a 45-yard run on the first play, but Brown averaged 3.1 yards per carry, so Ohio State will reveal whether Texas can consistently create conventional rushing yards instead of leaning on one explosive gain or Manning’s legs.
The possessions that decide the rematch
No. 1 Ohio State visits No. 4 Texas at 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC. The model gives Texas a 51.5% chance to win, essentially making this a toss-up at home. A win corresponds to a 71.8% CFP chance, compared with 57.0% after a loss; the alternative conference-title-game chances are 43.5% with a win and 40.0% with a loss.
Last year explains precisely what Texas must change. The Longhorns outgained Ohio State 336-203 and outrushed the Buckeyes 166-77, yet went 0-for-2 in the red zone and 1-for-5 on fourth down in a 14-7 loss. Texas moved the ball well enough to win and failed where yards become points.
Julian Sayin was making his first college start in that game, while Manning was making his first career road start. Manning finished 17-of-30 for 170 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while Sayin went 13-of-20 for 126 yards and a touchdown. Now Manning reaches the rematch with Wingo, Coleman, Smothers and Brown already producing around him. Saturday calls for Steve Sarkisian to keep all four involved when the field compresses, and for Texas to finish those drives without needing Manning to rescue every short-yardage snap himself.
Will Muschamp’s defense has a different assignment. It must create disruption without letting Ohio State live between the turnovers. Muschamp replaced five-year coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, and Blake Gideon returned to coach the secondary and coordinate the defensive passing game. The first returns were lively. Texas recorded eight tackles for loss, two sacks and three takeaways while holding Texas State to one touchdown. But Texas State still gained 349 yards, which is why the opener cannot stand as proof that the rebuild is finished.
Rasheem Biles supplied the sharpest version of the new defense’s promise. He forced the fumble that Graceson Littleton returned 59 yards for a touchdown, then intercepted Brad Jackson to set up a three-play touchdown drive. Those takeaways directly created 14 points. Sarkisian praised Biles’ instincts after the game, while his assessment of Muschamp’s defense was that it showed toughness and still had plenty to improve. Against Ohio State, Texas needs the same aggression with fewer sustained drives conceded between the splash plays.
Texas needs its deeper offense to cash in scoring chances and its rebuilt defense to hurry the Buckeyes without trading too much field position for disruption.
The rest of the board
The four outside results are useful, but none approaches the value of Texas handling Ohio State. The percentages below are separate conditional outcomes from the Week 2 simulation, not steps in a sequence.
Alabama at Kentucky: root for Kentucky
Kickoff is 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC. Kentucky has a 19% chance to win, so this is the fun long shot on the board. Because Alabama is an SEC participant, a Kentucky upset directly removes a conference win from a competitor. Texas’ modeled conference-title-game chance is 43.8% if Kentucky wins and 41.3% if Alabama wins, a 2.5-percentage-point difference.
Mississippi State at Minnesota: root for Mississippi State
Kickoff is 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on CBS. Mississippi State has a 49% chance to win, and the effect is about Texas’ eventual résumé. The Longhorns host Mississippi State in Week 9. Texas’ CFP chance is 65.4% if Mississippi State wins and 63.9% if Minnesota wins, a 1.4-percentage-point difference.
Missouri at Kansas: root for Missouri
Kickoff is 7 p.m. CT Friday on FOX. Missouri has a 60% chance to win. Texas visits Missouri in Week 10, so a Tigers victory improves the projected strength of that future matchup. The corresponding CFP chances are 65.2% with a Missouri win and 63.8% with a Kansas win, a 1.4-point difference.
Tennessee at Georgia Tech: root for Tennessee
Kickoff is 6 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN, shortly before Texas and Ohio State begin. Tennessee has a 58% chance to win. Texas travels to Tennessee in Week 4, making this another future-opponent result. The modeled CFP chances are 65.2% if Tennessee wins and 63.8% if Georgia Tech wins, a 1.4-percentage-point difference.
Kentucky’s upset bid carries the best outside leverage, while Mississippi State, Missouri and Tennessee can each add a little value to Texas’ future schedule. Follow every branch in the interactive Texas guide, and see how the simulations translate results into those conditional values in the methodology.