UNLV Rebels

0–0 · 0–0 MOUNTAIN WEST

Way too early

WEEK 1 · 2026

61%

MW title game

41%

Win the MW

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 11.6

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-1 job: beat Hawai'i.

If UNLV wins out: 76% to win the MW, 39% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves UNLV's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 5

UNLV at Hawai'i

Your game. Beat Hawai'i and your playoff odds are 4%; lose and they drop to 2%.

UNLV 53%

Just win

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT AUG 29

Hawai'i at Stanford

Mountain West race: Hawai'i losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Hawai'i in week 1.

Stanford 62%

Root for Stanford+1.9 pp title-game odds

46 more games that don't move your needle

San José State at USC

New Mexico State at Florida State

North Carolina at TCU · ESPN

NC State at Virginia · ESPN

Akron at Wake Forest

Massachusetts at Rutgers

Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN

Toledo at Michigan State

Fresno State at USC

San José State at Eastern Michigan

Miami at Stanford · ESPN

Florida Atlantic at Florida

UL Monroe at Mississippi State

UTEP at Oklahoma

Kent State at South Carolina

Texas State at Texas

Missouri State at Texas A&M

Oklahoma State at Tulsa

Boston College at Cincinnati

Oregon State at Houston

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia

Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh

Tulane at Duke

UCLA at California

UAB at Illinois

North Texas at Indiana

Northern Illinois at Iowa

Western Michigan at Michigan

Ohio at Nebraska

Ball State at Ohio State

Boise State at Oregon

Marshall at Penn State

Washington State at Washington

Wyoming at Colorado State

Arkansas State at Memphis

Florida International at South Florida

Western Kentucky at Nevada

Central Michigan at New Mexico

Liberty at James Madison

Sam Houston at Troy

East Carolina at Alabama · ABC

Baylor at Auburn · ABC

Clemson at LSU · ABC

Louisville at Ole Miss · ABC

Notre Dame at Wisconsin

SMU at Florida State · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.