UNLV Rebels
0–0 · 0–0 MOUNTAIN WEST
Way too early
WEEK 4 · 2026
61%
MW title game
41%
Win the MW
3%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.6
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Akron.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves UNLV's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 26
UNLV at Akron
Your game. Beat Akron and your playoff odds are 3%; lose and they drop to <1%.
UNLV 83%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Hawai'i at Wyoming
Mountain West race: Hawai'i losing helps your spot in the standings; Wyoming visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.
Hawai'i 53%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Air Force at Nevada
Mountain West race: Air Force losing helps your spot in the standings; Nevada visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.
Nevada 52%
54 more games that don't move your needle
Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Clemson at California
Navy at UAB
South Carolina at Alabama
Tulsa at Arkansas
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Ole Miss at Florida
Oklahoma at Georgia
Texas A&M at LSU
Missouri at Mississippi State
Texas at Tennessee
Arizona at Washington State
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Houston at Georgia Southern
Colorado at Baylor
Kansas State at Cincinnati
TCU at UCF
Utah at Iowa State
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Central Michigan at Miami
Delaware at Virginia
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Missouri State at SMU
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Wake Forest at Louisville
Northwestern at Indiana
UCLA at Maryland
Iowa at Michigan
Nebraska at Michigan State
Illinois at Ohio State
Wisconsin at Penn State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Oregon at USC
Minnesota at Washington
Rice at Fresno State
San Diego State at Toledo
Troy at Utah State
Oregon State at UTEP
Colorado State at UTSA
Boise State at Western Michigan
UConn at Miami (OH)
Army at Temple
Louisiana at Charlotte
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Southern Miss at Tulane
South Florida at Bowling Green
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
App State at NC State
South Alabama at Kentucky
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Ball State at Kent State
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
James Madison at Old Dominion
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.