Texas Tech Red Raiders

0–0 · 0–0 BIG 12

Way too early

WEEK 12 · 2026

78%

Big 12 title game

52%

Win the Big 12

67%

Make the playoff

21%

First-round bye

avg seed 6.3

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-12 job: beat Baylor.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

If Texas Tech wins out: 66% to win the Big 12, 91% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas Tech's path

Your game

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Texas Tech at Baylor

Your game. Beat Baylor and your playoff odds are 72%; lose and they drop to 42%.

Texas Tech 81%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Utah at TCU

TCU visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Utah 65%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT NOV 21

BYU at Kansas

Big 12 race: BYU losing helps your spot in the standings.

BYU 59%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Ohio State at Nebraska

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Nebraska winning protects it.

Ohio State 83%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Iowa State at UCF

UCF winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Iowa State 55%

…

SMU at Notre Dame

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and SMU winning protects it.

Notre Dame 92%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Georgia at South Carolina

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and South Carolina winning protects it.

Georgia 69%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

NC State at Florida State

NC State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Florida State 57%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Iowa at Illinois

Illinois winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Iowa 68%

56 more games that don't move your needle

Houston at West Virginia

Arizona at Kansas State

Indiana at Washington

UNLV at San José State

Ball State at Ohio

Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan

Miami (OH) at Kent State

Akron at Massachusetts

Bowling Green at Toledo

Central Michigan at Buffalo

Rice at Temple

Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech

Clemson at Duke

Oregon at Michigan State

Vanderbilt at Florida

Kentucky at Missouri

Texas A&M at Oklahoma

LSU at Tennessee

Arkansas at Texas

Colorado at Cincinnati

Oklahoma State at Arizona State

Virginia Tech at Miami

North Carolina at Virginia

Pittsburgh at Louisville

Stanford at California

Syracuse at Boston College

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech

UCLA at Michigan

Northwestern at Minnesota

Rutgers at Penn State

Wisconsin at Purdue

Maryland at USC

Colorado State at Fresno State

Utah State at Oregon State

Washington State at Texas State

San Diego State at Boise State

Old Dominion at UConn

East Carolina at Army

Charlotte at Tulsa

South Florida at Florida Atlantic

Memphis at Navy

North Texas at Tulane

UTSA at UAB

Hawai'i at Nevada

New Mexico at Wyoming

UTEP at Air Force

UL Monroe at App State

Coastal Carolina at Louisiana

Georgia Southern at Troy

Georgia State at Marshall

Delaware at New Mexico State

Florida International at Kennesaw State

Missouri State at Jacksonville State

Western Kentucky at Liberty

Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston

South Alabama at Southern Miss

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.