North Texas Mean Green
0–0 · 0–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Way too early
WEEK 5 · 2026
37%
American title game
20%
Win the American
9%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.1
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-5 job: beat Tulsa.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves North Texas's pathYour game
TBD
THU OCT 1
North Texas at Tulsa
Your game. Beat Tulsa and your playoff odds are 10%; lose and they drop to 3%.
North Texas 84%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Temple at South Florida
American Athletic race: South Florida losing helps your spot in the standings.
South Florida 92%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
UTSA at Rice
American Athletic race: UTSA losing helps your spot in the standings; Rice visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.
UTSA 85%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Marshall at James Madison
Marshall winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
James Madison 88%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Army at Louisiana Tech
American Athletic race: Army losing helps your spot in the standings.
Army 55%
50 more games that don't move your needle
Memphis at Charlotte
UL Monroe at South Alabama
Navy at Air Force
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Penn State at Northwestern
Liberty at Delaware
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Alabama at Mississippi State
Florida at Missouri
Kentucky at South Carolina
Auburn at Tennessee
Arkansas at Texas A&M
Middle Tennessee at Kansas
Baylor at Arizona State
BYU at TCU
UCF at Houston
Cincinnati at Arizona
Texas Tech at Colorado
West Virginia at Iowa State
Boston College at SMU
California at UNLV
Louisville at NC State
Miami at Clemson
Notre Dame at North Carolina
Stanford at Wake Forest
Syracuse at UConn
Virginia at Florida State
Purdue at Illinois
Ohio State at Iowa
Michigan at Minnesota
Maryland at Nebraska
Indiana at Rutgers
Washington at USC
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Utah State at Boise State
Oregon State at Colorado State
Texas State at San Diego State
Fresno State at Washington State
San José State at Hawai'i
UTEP at New Mexico
Akron at Central Michigan
Toledo at Ball State
Western Michigan at Buffalo
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
Ohio at Kent State
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
Arkansas State at Louisiana
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion at Georgia State
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.