USC Trojans
0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
Way too early
WEEK 1 · 2026
7%
Big Ten title game
2%
Win the Big Ten
18%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 9.6
Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-1 job: beat San José State.
If USC wins out: 39% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves USC's pathYour game
TBD
SAT AUG 29
San José State at USC
Your game. Beat San José State and your playoff odds are 18%; lose and they drop to 5%.
USC 98%
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Marshall at Penn State
You still play Penn State in week 6.
Penn State 93%
Root for Marshall+2.7 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
Louisville at Ole Miss
Louisville winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Ole Miss 73%
Root for Louisville+2.3 pp playoff odds
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Western Michigan at Michigan
Western Michigan winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Michigan 89%
Root for Western Michigan+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
East Carolina at Alabama
East Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Alabama 87%
Root for East Carolina+1.9 pp playoff odds
43 more games that don't move your needle
Hawai'i at Stanford
Memphis at UNLV
New Mexico State at Florida State
North Carolina at TCU · ESPN
NC State at Virginia · ESPN
Akron at Wake Forest
Massachusetts at Rutgers
Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Toledo at Michigan State
San José State at Eastern Michigan
Miami at Stanford · ESPN
Florida Atlantic at Florida
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
UTEP at Oklahoma
Kent State at South Carolina
Texas State at Texas
Missouri State at Texas A&M
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Boston College at Cincinnati
Oregon State at Houston
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh
Tulane at Duke
UCLA at California
UAB at Illinois
North Texas at Indiana
Northern Illinois at Iowa
Ohio at Nebraska
Ball State at Ohio State
Boise State at Oregon
Washington State at Washington
Wyoming at Colorado State
Arkansas State at Memphis
Florida International at South Florida
Western Kentucky at Nevada
UNLV at Hawai'i
Central Michigan at New Mexico
Liberty at James Madison
Sam Houston at Troy
Baylor at Auburn · ABC
Clemson at LSU · ABC
Notre Dame at Wisconsin
SMU at Florida State · ESPN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.