Before Jayden Maiava looks downfield, watch the new center over the ball. Can he identify San José State’s front, set the protection and get everyone moving without visible confusion? Then watch where Maiava turns when the play demands a trustworthy target.
Those moments matter more than the final margin Saturday. USC hosts San José State at noon PT on NBC with a 98% win probability. The useful rooting posture is therefore specific. Hope for a comfortable win, but invest your attention in whether the offense communicates like the veteran unit it is supposed to be.
What USC needs to show
USC returns 17 starters, the most in the Big Ten, and is the nation’s only team bringing back the same starting quarterback, head coach and offensive coordinator for a third consecutive season. Maiava also enters the opener after throwing for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2025.
That continuity should make USC look settled from the snap. But starting center Kilian O’Connor suffered a season-ending fall-camp injury, removing an expected member of an offensive line that had returned all five starters in the spring. The first useful evidence will be procedural. Look for clean protection calls, coordinated responses to pressure looks and no need for Maiava to spend the afternoon rescuing broken communication.
The next read comes after the snap. Tanook Hines is USC’s leading returning wide receiver after a 34-catch, 561-yard season, but he missed spring and the opening of fall camp following an undisclosed procedure. Riley expected him back for the opener, yet USC still needs to reveal which targets Maiava trusts when the design does not manufacture an easy throw.
So root for more than points. Root for the new center to keep the offense on schedule, for Maiava to distribute the ball with conviction and for a receiving order to begin emerging. One afternoon cannot settle either question, but repeated confusion against a 2% upset threat would be more informative than the score becoming lopsided late.
The modeled stakes explain why the result itself cannot be dismissed. USC’s playoff probability is 23.8% in the win branch and 10.8% in the loss branch. Those are alternative outcomes, not a forecast that changes twice. The upset would cost roughly 13 percentage points of playoff probability. Expect the win; pay attention to how USC constructs it.
The rest of the board
There are only two outside results on the USC card. One is overwhelmingly likely and mechanically helpful; the other is a modest long-shot bonus. Neither should compete with watching USC’s offense closely.
Ball State at Ohio State: root for Ohio State
Kickoff is Saturday, September 5 at 9:30 a.m. PT on BTN. Ohio State has a 100% chance to win, and that result is worth 7.3 percentage points of USC playoff probability compared with the Ball State upset branch.
This is a future-opponent-strength effect. USC plays Ohio State in Week 9, so the model prefers that opponent to retain its value. Because the game sits outside the Big Ten schedule, its benefit is entirely indirect. Fortunately, the helpful result is so likely that it requires almost no emotional investment. Check the score only if something bizarre is happening.
Louisville at Ole Miss: root for Louisville
Kickoff is Sunday, September 6 at 4:30 p.m. PT on ABC. Louisville has a 21% chance to win, and the upset is worth 1.4 percentage points of USC playoff probability.
Here the mechanism is national playoff competition, not USC’s schedule or the Big Ten standings. An Ole Miss loss slightly improves the national field around the Trojans. That makes Louisville a clean rooting interest and a fun upset to monitor, but the benefit is too small, and the preferred result too unlikely, to become something USC needs.
The full set of conditional outcomes is available in the interactive USC guide, with the simulation framework explained on the methodology page.