USC Trojans
0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
Way too early
WEEK 4 · 2026
7%
Big Ten title game
2%
Win the Big Ten
24%
Make the playoff
3%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.7
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Oregon.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves USC's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Oregon at USC
Your game. Beat Oregon and your playoff odds are 33%; lose and they drop to 16%.
Oregon 56%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Minnesota at Washington
Washington visits your schedule in week 5 — keep them ranked.
Washington 84%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Northwestern at Indiana
Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Indiana in week 11.
Indiana 96%
54 more games that don't move your needle
Wisconsin at Penn State
Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Clemson at California
Navy at UAB
South Carolina at Alabama
Tulsa at Arkansas
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Ole Miss at Florida
Oklahoma at Georgia
Texas A&M at LSU
Missouri at Mississippi State
Texas at Tennessee
Arizona at Washington State
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Houston at Georgia Southern
Colorado at Baylor
Kansas State at Cincinnati
TCU at UCF
Utah at Iowa State
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Central Michigan at Miami
Delaware at Virginia
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Missouri State at SMU
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Wake Forest at Louisville
UCLA at Maryland
Iowa at Michigan
Nebraska at Michigan State
Illinois at Ohio State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Rice at Fresno State
San Diego State at Toledo
Troy at Utah State
Oregon State at UTEP
Colorado State at UTSA
Boise State at Western Michigan
UConn at Miami (OH)
Army at Temple
Louisiana at Charlotte
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Southern Miss at Tulane
South Florida at Bowling Green
Air Force at Nevada
Hawai'i at Wyoming
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
UNLV at Akron
App State at NC State
South Alabama at Kentucky
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Ball State at Kent State
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
James Madison at Old Dominion
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.