Louisville Cardinals
0–0 · 0–0 ACC
Way too early
WEEK 3 · 2026
27%
ACC title game
11%
Win the ACC
11%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 9.4
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-3 job: beat SMU.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Louisville's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 19
SMU at Louisville
Your game. Beat SMU and your playoff odds are 17%; lose and they drop to 5%.
Louisville 52%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
FRI SEP 18
Miami at Wake Forest
ACC race: Miami losing helps your spot in the standings; Wake Forest visits your schedule in week 4 — keep them ranked.
Miami 77%
TBD
SAT SEP 19
North Carolina at Clemson
ACC race: Clemson losing helps your spot in the standings; North Carolina visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.
Clemson 88%
53 more games that don't move your needle
Stanford at Duke
Syracuse at Pittsburgh
Florida State at Alabama
Georgia at Arkansas
Florida at Auburn
Troy at Missouri
New Mexico at Oklahoma
Mississippi State at South Carolina
Kennesaw State at Tennessee
UTSA at Texas
Kentucky at Texas A&M
NC State at Vanderbilt
Tulane at Kansas State
Northern Illinois at Arizona
BYU at Colorado State
Colorado at Northwestern
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati
Bowling Green at Iowa State
Arkansas State at TCU
Georgia State at UCF
Utah State at Utah
Virginia at West Virginia
Houston at Texas Tech
Kansas at Arizona State
Virginia Tech at Maryland
Western Kentucky at Indiana
UTEP at Michigan
Akron at Minnesota
Kent State at Ohio State
Buffalo at Penn State
USC at Rutgers
Purdue at UCLA
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin
James Madison at San Diego State
Fresno State at San José State
North Texas at Texas State
UConn at Southern Miss
East Carolina at Old Dominion
Florida International at Florida Atlantic
Western Michigan at Rice
Temple at Toledo
UAB at Louisiana
Nevada at Middle Tennessee
Wyoming at Central Michigan
Charlotte at App State
Ball State at Liberty
Ohio at South Alabama
Louisiana Tech at Baylor
Coastal Carolina at Delaware
Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State
Marshall at Missouri State
LSU at Ole Miss · ABC
Michigan State at Notre Dame
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.